A powerful winter storm will form off the East Coast this weekend amid a boutof deadly cold, but predicting its track, intensity and who could see snow will take another day or so to become clear.
As of Wednesday, forecast models agree a storm will form off the coast of the Carolinas early Saturday and then intensify rapidly enough to be classified asa bomb cyclone.They're also zeroing in on at least some impact to parts of the East Coast.
But models diverge on the exact track of this storm through the weekend, which will determine who sees snow and strong winds. Even a change of just 100 or 200 miles in the storm's eventual track could be the difference in an epic snowfall for major East Coast cities or just a cold, breezy weekend.
The takeaway on Wednesday:Parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia have the highest chance of significant and possibly heavy snow and strong winds no matter the eventual track of this storm. Confidence in the forecast dwindles north of there for the rest of the Eastern Seaboard, but southeast New England has the highest odds to see wind-driven snow.
We'll be more confident on the storm's track and impacts Thursday, since it's still a few days away from even forming.
Here are the scenarios that are in play:
Scenario 1: Coastal storm, Northeast largely spared
This scenario is most likely at this time given recent computer model projections.
The storm moves close enough to the coast to bring snow and other impacts to parts of the Southeast and coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and New England, sparing most major East Coast cities.
Coastal impacts such as beach erosion and coastal flooding would be confined to areas right along the coast from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Cape Cod, Massachusetts, as the storm turns into a bomb cyclone and moves northeastward through Monday.
The Carolinas and southern Virginia would be most impacted in this scenario with heavy snow, strong winds and coastal impacts, beginning Saturday morning.
This storm track would largely spare the big cities of the Northeast's Interstate-95 corridor from DC to New York City, though it would be a close shave. Boston has a better shot at snow and strong winds in this scenario depending on how close the storm tracks to eastern New England, which juts out further into the Atlantic, closer to the storm's potential path.
That said, a shift in this track of just 100 to 200 miles to the west could make this a more widespread, significant snowstorm.
Scenario 2: Widespread snow event
Most computer models don't favor this scenario, but there's still enough uncertainty this far out in time to keep it on the table.
This storm track would bring heavy snow and strong winds from the eastern Carolinas to the I-95 corridor.
The storm hugs the coast in this scenario, much closer than in the first one, as it rapidly intensifies.
The heavy snow and strong winds would significantly compound the impacts from last weekend's storm. Many communities are still digging out and trying to restore power from the ice and snow amid record-cold temperatures.
This track would also worsen the threat of coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Scenario 3: A whole lot of nothing
Some computer model runs still hang onto this scenario, but it seems the least likely outcome at this point.
In this final scenario, the storm moves straight out to sea after forming further offshore of the Carolinas.
This would keep its strongest winds and most of its snowfall offshore, sparing even the Carolinas from significant impacts.
How this storm will differ from the last
This next winter storm will be a completely different beast from the sprawling one that just struck most areas east of the Rockies. Even though it will be a more intense and windy storm, theclassic nor'easterwill have a far smaller footprint along the East Coast.
A wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet is largely off the table for this event, given the storm's track and the cold air already in place ahead of it. This is good news for those who saw damaging ice in the last event.
But blizzard conditions from its strong winds are in the mix, along with damaging waves and surf for much of the eastern coastline.
The bottom line:If you live from the Carolinas to the Northeast, pay attention to the latest forecast as this event gets closer because a significant storm is looking more likely.
CNN Meteorologists Briana Waxman and Chris Dolce contributed to this report.
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