With a series of resignations in his cabinet linked to anotherbatch of documentsrelated toJeffrey Epsteinbeing released,UK Prime Minister Keir Starmeris under fire, even though he never knew the convicted sex offender, experts say.
"His position is extremely fragile,"Brendan O'Leary, Political Science Chair at the University of Pennsylvania, told USA TODAY about Starmer, who won in a landslide victory in 2024 that ended 14 years of Conservative party rule. "The Prime Minister is definitely looking over his shoulder."
Although Starmer is not named in any of the Epstein files, his political struggles are connected to Peter Mandelson, a friend of Epstein, as the ambassador to the United States. Mandelson was fired as ambassador in September 2025 after further details of his relationship with Epstein emerged.
More details of Mandelson's ties to the disgraced late financier became public when thelatest round of documentsfrom the Justice Department revealed Mandelson corresponded with Epstein after the financier became a registered sex offender in 2009.
Mandelson also resigned from the House of Lords, the upper chamber of Britain's parliament, this month and faces a potential investigation into misconduct in public office, O'Leary added.
Starmer has apologized to Epstein's victims for believing Mandelson's "lies."
"What Mandelson did, which was extraordinary, to give Epstein information about the UK's intended support for the Euro during a key moment during the currency crisis," O'Leary said. "And, obviously, while we won't ever know what the extent could have been, that would've been considered sensitive information that could have been exploited by Epstein."
Just a week after the Jan. 30 Epstein document dump, two of Starmer's aides also resigned: Communications chief Tim Allan and Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's top aide, who said he took responsibility for advising on Mandelson's appointment to Britain's top diplomatic role.
"The decision to appoint Peter Mandelson was wrong. He has damaged our party, our country and trust in politics itself," McSweeney said in a Feb. 8 statement. "While I did not oversee the due diligence and vetting process, I believe that process must now be fundamentally overhauled."
The departures, especially McSweeney, whom Starmer "had relied on as a vigorous enforcer of discipline in the party," put the prime minister's position deservedly under intense scrutiny, O'Leary said.
"I don't think Starmer is a dishonest person, but I think he made a grave error in judgment because he trusted the advice of McSweeney regarding Mandelson," O'Leary said. "It's quite possible more information may come out, and, if that's the case, it could be bad news for Starmer."
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Starmer is tanking in the polls, too
The public has been unkind to Starmer as well.
AnIpsos poll in late Januaryrevealed that only 20% liked Starmer, who vowed to stabilize the country's economy and improve public services. His net favorability score was -50, matching the lowest Ipsos has found for a Labour leader since it started tracking the stat in 2007.
Additionally, Starmer's "lead of satisfaction ratings, as opposed to favorability, has been the worst Ipsos has ever recorded for a Prime Minister,"Kieran Pedley, Ipsos' UK director of Politics, told USA TODAY from London. "And we've been measuring that lead of satisfaction similar to our presidential approval ratings since the late 1970s, since the days of Margaret Thatcher."
Pedley said Starmer was elected on a mandate of change as the public was intensely dissatisfied with public services, the cost of living, and immigration issues. The pace of change has been deemed too slow by some polls, Pedley said.
"Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister is vulnerable," Pedley added. "I certainly feel there's a sense of political danger."
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AJanuary YouGov pollalso showed Starmer's decline in popularity is widespread, with only 18% of Brits viewing him positively.
Starmer on Feb. 10 vowed never to walk away from his job despite the pressure from some Labour Party leaders, includingAnas Sarwar, who leads Starmer's Labour Party in Scotland and who has called on Starmer to resign.
Starmer will likely remain in place, saidLaura Beers, a political science professor at American University who specializes in British politics.
And since the Labour Party holds the majority in Parliament, Starmer is unlikely to be pushed out of office. She believes that despite the heavy criticism, Starmer will weather any storms, for now.
"If (Starmer) was going to go, he would've been gone by now," said Beers, who is currently in the United Kingdom. "It's hard to see this reach that point given that it hasn't already happened where Starmer resigns."
Upcoming elections could determine Starmer's fate
A glimpse into Starmer's future could be determined by a series ofupcoming local elections in May,where it's anticipated his Labour Party will suffer big losses.
Nearly 5,000 voters will decide on seats across 136 local councils, following the UK government's recent reversal to delay the elections after an appeal by the rival Reform Party.
Reform Party leader Nigel Farage said the government's decision was a victory for Reform UK.
"We took this Labour government to court and won," Farage said in aFeb. 16 post on X.
Beers noted that a popular UK politician, Andy Burnham, the current mayor of Greater Manchester, was recentlyblockedfrom running in a special election that could have seen him return to parliament and become a potential challenger to Starmer.
Pedley, Ipsos' UK politics director, said in head-to-head polling, "the public is evenly split" between Starmer and Farage on who they would prefer as prime minister, as opposed to other alternatives in the Labour Party.
"There's no obvious slam dunk of a successor, and part of the reason why it's still not clear who would definitely replace him," Pedley said.
"There's nothing in the polling that's showing there is someone in the wings waiting to take over for him," Pedley said. "So, it's not guaranteed Starmer gets deposed or replaced, although it's still difficult times ahead for him."
Beers agrees.
"There is no viable successor if Starmer steps down or is forced out, and the Labour Party knows that," Beers said. "There's literally 0% chance of an election over this. In fact, I would be shocked if Starmer didn't weather this storm."
However, O'Leary is less optimistic about Starmer's future.
"He has survived by the skin of his teeth, but his rendezvous with destiny will be these upcoming elections," O'Leary said. "And if Labour (Party) does extraordinarily badly, and that's what it looks like right now, it's extremely difficult to see how he survives."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Epstein files controversy snares UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
