The opening strikes of the war with Iran shouldn't have been necessary if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to be taken at his word.
After the12-day war with Iranin June, Netanyahu declared unequivocal victory. Israel had "removed two existential threats," eliminating Iran's ballistic missiles and its nuclear program.
"This victory," he told Israelis last summer, "will stand for decades."
Those decades ended eight months later. On February 28, the US and Israel launched the first strikes of a war that has now reached its 26th day, more than twice as long as the conflict in June. The US calls it Epic Fury. Israel has dubbed it Roaring Lion.
Whatever the name, it is a war with no clear end in sight even if US President Donald Trump hailed "productive" talks Monday aimed at ending hostilities
And yet, Netanyahu has already declared victory again.
"We are winning, and Iran is decapitated," he said at a press conference last Thursday.
Seventy-two hours later, two Iranian ballistic missiles slammed into cities in southern Israel, registering direct hits that pierced the country's layered missile defense. One of the missileshit the city of Dimonanear Israel's main nuclear research center.
When the joint campaign opened with surprise strikes thatkilled Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneiand other top officials, Israel's leadership was confident and optimistic, boasting about destroying Iran's military capabilities and disrupting its command and control. By every metric, this war with Iran has surpassed the last one.
And yet Iran is still firing, maintaining daily ballistic missile, drone and rocket attacks on Israel and Gulf states. More than 350 Iranian ballistic missiles have been launched at Israel since February 28, sending millions of Israelis into shelters every day.
"It's Russian roulette, and living in this country is Russian roulette," Aviad, who chose not to use his last name, told CNN from Tel Aviv hours after a cluster munition hit several sites in central Israel on Sunday.
Fifteen civilians have been killed by Iranian missiles in Israel since the war began, and four more in the occupied West Bank, a tiny fraction of the number killed in Iran and Lebanon. The twin strikes on Saturday night wounded more than 150 Israelis, the largest single-day injury tally. Iranian salvos continued to strike the country on Monday and Tuesday, even after Trump declared that the US is engaging in diplomacy with Iran. One ballistic missile, containing 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of explosives, caused significant damage to properties in Tel Aviv, injuring four people, in another failed interception attempt.
Advertisement
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the failure to intercept the missiles was not systemic, pointing to a 92% shoot-down rate.
Theextensive use of Iranian cluster munitions, however, has inflicted damage all around the country, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Israeli aerial defense systems. Although Israel's Arrow 3 or David's Sling interceptors can take out a ballistic missile with a single warhead, the cluster warheads break up into scores of bomblets. They are far less deadly – and far harder to intercept.
"If it fails and we are in a safe room, we are totally safe," Jennifer Hassan Smith, 52, told CNN. "Nothing in this world is perfect, including the air defense system. It is expected there will be occasional casualties or imperfections. The military draws conclusions and learns lessons, and I hope there will be fewer casualties in the future."
For now, Israeli public support for the war holds. A Channel 12 poll last weekend indicated that 66% of Israelis were satisfied with the war's achievements – including 55% of voters who oppose Netanyahu. After two and a half years of continuous conflict, stretching from the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack from Gaza, through Lebanon and now two Iranian campaigns, Israeli society appears to have become inured to a state of permanent war.
Whether that adaptation has limits seems to be one of the strategic questions on which Tehran is betting, a former Israeli official told CNN. "The Iranians are stretching the rubber band and betting it will tear on Israel and the Gulf states' side before it tears on theirs," the official told CNN.
Ofer Shelach, a senior research fellow at the Israeli Institute of National Security studies, does not believe Israel's resilience will break. "The Iranian strategy of attrition is calculated and cool blooded, however it is not designed to exhaust the Israeli home front, but rather it's much more focused on Gulf states," Shelach told CNN. "The Israeli home front is exhausted and tired, but it is not worn out. It is standing."
On Sunday, Israel's Transportation Ministry announced it will cut outgoing flights to one per hour with only 50 passengers on board. After the strikes in Dimona and Arad, Israel once again tightened restrictions around in-class learning in the country's south, keeping students in virtual class for longer.
With support for the war in Iran so high, experts who track Israeli public opinion believe patience with the operation is unlikely to falter anytime soon, even as the global economic effects of the war are felt domestically. But support is not indefinite.
"The Iranian threat is dramatic enough for the Israelis to continue to suffer for it," said Shmuel Rosner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Police Institute who follows public opinion. "The problem is not the suffering, but only the question of whether Israelis believe that the purpose and goals of the war are achievable – and that is where we see the beginning of a trend. In the early days, everyone was sure that it would change the Middle East, and over time, doubts naturally arise."
Netanyahu's critics do not see the Iran war as an isolated event but rather the latest episode in a familiar pattern. Similar victory declarations followed the military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, all framed as turning points restoring Israel's deterrence and regional balance.
"This is a prime minister who refuses to pair military action with strategic planning," a former security official told CNN. "He refused to discuss any Gaza day-after plan, never consolidated the Lebanon November 2024 ceasefire, and described the 12-day war (in June) as a massive success. Eight months later we are back in the same loop – it's clear that it was only a bandage."
Netanyahu's message remains unchanged. Visiting the site of the Dimona strike on Sunday, he made the same victory promise once again. "The war will continue until we win."
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account atCNN.com
