It's time to fill out your bracket, and what's March without a little madness in the form of some Cinderella teams to root for along the way? Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski reveals four teams with a solid case to outkick expectations in the first week of the men'sNCAA tournament.
Note: All team stats courtesy of the indispensable KenPom.com.
I know the thirst for underdogs is strong aswe get ready for the NCAA Tournament, but I'm going to be cautious as I fill out my brackets this week. It's possible the NIL era has turned the tournament into a favorite-friendly event, where the difference between the higher-payroll schools and the lower-payroll schools is significant. Consider that last March, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, and there was only one double-digit team (Arkansas, a 10 seed) that survived the first weekend.
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One set of results is not definitive proof of anything, of course. And with that in mind, let's get to today's assignment, some Cinderellas (of varying longshot depth) who have a chance to outkick their expectations and last longer than the odds initially suggest.
Light Cinderella: St. John's (No. 5 seed, East)
If you simply picked all the higher seeds to advance in every game, the Sweet 16 wouldn't contain a single team past a No. 4 seed. Thus, if St. John's can get out of the first week, it's already beaten expectations.
It wasn't a great season for the Big East, which is why St. John's merely earned a No. 5 nod despite ending the year on a 19-1 blitz. The Johnnies dominated Connecticut for 40 minutes in the Big East final, but it didn't push them higher on the seeding line.
While St. John's will be challenged by Northern Iowa in Round 1, I expect the Johnnies will survive and likely take on Kansas on the weekend (although rebound-dominant Cal Baptist isn't an easy draw for Kansas in Round 1, either). The Jayhawks have been a Jekyll-Hyde team all year, with star freshman Darryn Peterson battling injuries and inconsistency. Kansas enters the tournament on a 4-5 slump, and has a metrics profile that's less impressive than St. John's. It's plausible St. John's would be favored come the weekend.
There's star power on this St. John's roster, with Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor and legendary head coach Rick Pitino. The Johnnies aren't a great shooting team, but they're relentless on the offensive boards. St. John's has a dangerous defensive profile, protecting the rim and turning its opponents over. I have this club winning at least two games — not a bold prediction but at least a seeding upset — and then giving Duke a 40-minute problem in the Round of 16.
Medium Cinderella: UCLA (No. 7 seed, East)
It's been a yo-yo season for the Bruins, who were ranked 12th in the country when the season started but were out of the rankings before Christmas. When Michigan and Michigan State both trounced UCLA in mid-February, it was fair to wonder if the Bruins would even make the tournament.
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Head coach Mick Cronin has found answers since, starting with a shocking comeback win over Illinois in overtime back on Feb. 21. That sparked a 6-1 run to tidy up the season, before falling to Purdue in the Big 10 semifinals. That seven-point defeat was respectable, considering that forward Tyler Bilodeau (knee) didn't play and guard Donovan Dent (calf) was limited to 10 minutes. Bilodeau and Dent are clearly UCLA's two best players.
The Bruins have a profile of a dangerous March team — experience (14th in the country), a low turnover rate (12th), a good shooting team (16th in 3-point percentage, 41st in free throw percentage). Early health reports suggest Bilodeau and Dent will be good to go this week — I suspect Cronin fairly reasoned that while it would be nice to win the Purdue game last Saturday, it wasn't worth risking the NCAA Tournament over.
I'll definitely pick the Bruins to handle UCF in Round 1 — as they're favored to do — and I don't think they'd be heavy underdogs against presumably UConn (an overseeded No. 2 team) in the second round. UCLA versus Michigan State could be a fun rematch in the third round — the same MSU team that UCLA got revenge on last week in the Big 10 Tournament.
Deeper Cinderella: VCU (No. 11 seed, South)
Virginia Commonwealth is no stranger to the NCAA tournament, making its 15th trip since 2024. They've scored some upsets along the way, surprising Duke back in 2007 and making a dream run in 2011, moving from theFirst Four to the Final Fourin two glorious weeks. This year's team enters the dance on a 16-1 roll, including an easy stroll through the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
A win for the Rams over North Carolina in Round 1 would only be a minor upset. The Tar Heels are merely 2.5-point favorites, and of course, they're without star forward Caleb Wilson. UNC was routed at Duke without Wilson, then lost to Clemson in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels have struggled with perimeter defense all season, and that's a big problem against a Rams team that makes 36.7% of its 3-point attempts.
I'll slot VCU to win at least one game even in tournament contests that don't reward upsets, and although I wouldn't expect VCU to beat Illinois in Week 2, it at least would have a puncher's chance in that draw.
Dreaming Cinderella: Hofstra (No. 13 seed, Midwest)
When you're trying to imagine a hockey upset, you gravitate toward the hot goalie (looking at you,Connor Hellebuyck). That's the quickest way for a lesser-talented team to take down a deeper roster.
Basketball's version of the hot goalie is the 3-point shot. Think of what St. Peter's dialed up in 2022, or Oakland University two years back — those schools took down favored opponents largely by shooting the lights out behind the arc.Doug EdertandJack Gohlkewill live in our memories forever.
Hofstra shoots 36.8% from outside the arc, and has three outstanding marksmen (Cruz Davis, Preston Edmead, German Plotnikov) in the starting rotation. Its opponent, Alabama, was not an elite team with perimeter defense this year. Don't sleep on the upset potential here, despite Hofstra being a double-digit underdog.
To be fair, Alabama's outside shooting metrics are almost as good as Hofstra's, and obviously, Alabama played a much more difficult schedule. But I'm willing to be open-minded with the Pride potentially taking down the Tide, and maybe chaos will reign in this area of the Midwest bracket. The sidecar game to Hofstra/Alabama is also interesting -- No. 12 Akron could be a live dog against a No. 5 Texas Tech team that's now vulnerable with star forward J.T. Toppin lost for the season.
