Maggie Mackenzie Fri, October 30, 2026 at 3:16 PM UTC · 2 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Denny Hamlin is running out of time to catch Kyle Larson in the NASCAR Cup Series championship race. Fortunately for the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran, Sunday's stop at Martinsville Speedway might be his best opportunity to make up some ground.
Hamlin enters the Xfinity 500 as the betting favorite at +400, ahead of Ryan Blaney (+450) and Joey Logano (+700). Larson, meanwhile, sits fourth at +750 despite carrying a commanding 73-point lead into the penultimate race of the season.
It's an interesting contrast: The driver closest to securing the championship isn't the one favored to win Sunday's race.
And Martinsville's history helps explain why.
Hamlin has six career Cup Series victories at Martinsville, making the Virginia short track one of his most successful venues.
His most recent win came in March 2025. Earlier this season, he was dominant again, sweeping both stages and leading 292 of 400 laps before finishing second.
For a driver trying to keep his championship hopes alive, returning to a track where he has repeatedly controlled races couldn't come at a better time.
Blaney is right behind him on the betting board. The Team Penske driver won Martinsville's fall race in both 2023 and 2024 and has finished inside the top 10 in eight of his last nine starts at the half-mile oval.
Logano rounds out the top three favorites at +700, giving Team Penske two drivers among the leading contenders.
Larson's +750 odds place him fourth, followed by Chase Elliott (+800) and William Byron (+900).
Here are the listed pre-race odds for Sunday's Xfinity 500:
While Hamlin is favored to win the race, Larson enters Martinsville in a much stronger position in the championship standings.
His remarkable Talladega victory expanded his advantage from five points to 73, leaving Hamlin and the rest of the field facing an increasingly difficult task with only two races remaining.
Larson can clinch his third Cup Series championship Sunday by earning 59 points, regardless of how his competitors finish.
That creates two very different objectives at Martinsville.
Hamlin needs a big afternoon to revive his title hopes. Larson can afford to approach the race with a much greater emphasis on protecting his points advantage.
The betting market favors Hamlin to take the checkered flag. But with the championship potentially on the line, Sunday's biggest winner might not be the driver who finishes first.
Source: Sports
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