The dominoes we all thought would fall in late November when the coaching carousel began never materialized.
A month later, we're primed for a mini round ofchaos from the good folks at Michigan― and theSEC.
Because if Michigan is smart (and that's a big IF of late), it would zero in on a few coaches from the best conference incollege footballto lead it out of a sudden abyss.
It was only two years ago theWolverineswon their first national title in more than a quarter century, and much has happened since: one coach (Jim Harbaugh) ran to the NFL before the NCAA sheriff could get him, and another coach (Sherrone Moore)was fired Wednesdayafter an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate.
And Michigan — here's the key — lost to Ohio State for the first time since 2019.
Time for some stability, SEC style. But how many of these four coaches would actually pull up sticks and leave for a Top 10 job swimming in turmoil?
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
This is a bit touchy. He has a fantastic job, one of the top five in the game.
But if the Tide loses an ugly game at Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff, those dyed in houndstooth will get restless. And that's never good.
DeBoer signed an 8-year, $87 million deal in 2024, and Michigan would have to make it worth his while to leave. In other words, likely move him to the Kirby Smart/Lane Kiffin level of pay ($13 million plus annually).
When your big booster is Oracle founder and billionaire Larry Ellison, anything is possible at Michigan. This will be, as much as anything, a comfort decision.
Where will DeBoer feel most comfortable moving forward: With the uncertainty at Michigan (athletic director Warde Manuel could be fired next), or with the known at Alabama and athletic director Greg Byrne — even with potential fan drama down the road if it doesn't start looking like what Nick Saban fashioned.
∎ Odds he would leave with the perfect deal: 15%.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
An obvious choice after what he has accomplished at his alma mater.
Lea late last month wasgiven a raise and extension to 2035. Since Vanderbilt is a private school, it doesn't have to report coaching salaries.
Lea was making $3.7 million annually, which would put him at the bottom of the 16-team league. His new extension likely more than doubles that number, since Lea was being courted by Florida and others.
If Michigan shows up with a deal worth $10 million annually, and a private NIL commitment as good as any in the game, could it tempt Lea to make the move and not reap the rewards of what he has built in Nashville?
∎ Odds he would leave with the perfect deal: 25%.
Mike Elko, Texas A&M
He's 19-6 in two seasons in College Station, including an 11-win season in 2025 and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The dirty secret: Texas A&M played only one of the six other SEC teams in the final CFP Top 25, and lost to Texas. In other words, it was easy sledding.
What happens when the heavy lifting arrives in the coming years?
Elko, like Lea, recentlysigned a lucrative contract extension through 2031that will pay him an average of $11 million per season. That's a large number for Michigan to surpass, but if the Wolverines believe he's the right guy, how could Elko not listen?
∎ Odds he would leave with the perfect deal: 35%.
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
There's little doubt Drinkwitz is committed to what he's building in Columbia, and has done a wildly underrated job of it.
But if Michigan starts flashing big salary numbers, it's going to be difficult for Drinkwitz to say no to a Top 10 program and a private NIL structure that would dwarf what he's getting at Missouri.
Drinkwitz also recentlysigned a contract extension through 2031, one that averages $10.7 million annually. He's a proven program builder (both high school and transfer portal recruiting), and has won 29 games in the past three seasons.
And he has beaten Ohio State (in the 2023 Cotton Bowl).
∎ Odds he would leave with the perfect deal: 85%.
Matt Hayesis the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at@MattHayesCFB.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Michigan coach search could lead to SEC. Would these candidates say no?
