We may be months away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, but tropical cyclones are spinning somewhere on the planet.
Indeed, on the other side of the world, "Tropical Cyclone Horacio became the world's first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 on Monday afternoon, February 23, topping out with 160 mph winds over the warm waters of the remote South Indian Ocean," said meteorologist Jeff Masters on theYale Climate Connections blog.
Forecasters from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center say that Horacio has peaked in intensity and will steadily weaken as it moves southward over cooler waters. Fortunately, Masters said Horacio is far from any land areas and is only a threat to marine interests.
While not a threat to land, Horacio is a reminder that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is only three months away. What might it bring?
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El Niño may hold the key
Forecasters say that an oncoming El Niño will likely play a significant role in the strength and activity of the 2026 hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
El Niño, a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, "usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf," said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist with the University of Miami, in an e-mail to USA TODAY.
At the same time, El Niño's impacts also often include more active hurricane seasons in the eastern and central Pacific Oceans. "El Niño tends to lead to more active Pacific seasons, though the details of where the warmest water sets up (East vs. Central Pacific) may determine which basin is most above normal," Hazelton said.
Earth averages five Cat 5s per year
Horacio is the first Category 5 in the Southern Hemisphere since Cyclone Errol achieved that status off the coast of northwestern Australia on April 16, 2025.
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The 1990-2025 average yearly number of Category 5 storms globally was 5.3; there were five in 2025 (Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto in the Atlantic; Typhoon Ragasa in the Northwest Pacific; and Cyclone Errol in the South Indian), Masters said.
Interestingly, even though El Niño tends to reduce Atlantic hurricanes, Hazelton said that the last three category 5 hurricanes to hit the United States (Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018) all occurred during hurricane seasons as the ocean was transitioning to weak El Niño conditions.
Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones, oh my!
To clarify, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are all the same type of storm, known collectively as tropical cyclones. They have different names depending on which basin they form in.
Hurricanes form in the Atlantic basin, along with the eastern and central Pacific basins. Typhoons form in the western Pacific, while cyclones (aka tropical cyclones) form in the Indian Ocean and in the south Pacific.
Unlike the North Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, the South Indian Ocean cyclone season typically runs from November through April, similar to the Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons near Australia.
According to NOAA, cyclones can technically form year‑round in the Indian Ocean, but November-April is when conditions are most favorable — which means warm ocean water and lower wind shear.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Tropical Cyclone Horacio becomes monster Category 5 cyclone
