We've finally hit Championship Week for the fantasy football season, so let's run down a few strategy tips. Most of this will be review, and stuff we've written and talked about in years past. Some of these things are specific to December; other tips are more universal. As usual, many of these tips are common sense — common sense is the most important club in your bag.
It all boils down to good decisions. That's what probably led you to this point, and that's the key to giving yourself the best chance in the next few weeks. Keep making those good decisions, amigos.
Here's what you need to know and consider as you work on securing that title.
Audit Team Motivations
All 32 NFL teams are in play this week, but motivation varies. You need to spend some time scouting who cares about this result versus who might not care so much.
Some of this stuff is easy. The Bears and Packers are fighting for the NFC North title — they care. The Lions, Ravens and Colts are all long shots to make the playoffs, but still alive — they care. The Panthers and Buccaneers need to win as the NFC South is up for grabs. The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all remain live in the NFC West. They're going for it.
Three of the AFC divisions are hotly contested, so all of their teams remain fully motivated. That includes the Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Broncos and Chargers.
The Eagles are in the playoffs but probably locked into the NFC's No. 3 seed. There's no inclination that they'll hold out starters, but an early shutdown in a blowout game wouldn't surprise me — see what they didtwo weeks ago against the Raiders.
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The Steelers need a win (or tie) or a Baltimore loss (or tie) to clinch the AFC North. If Baltimore doesn't beat Green Bay on Saturday, the Steelers would not need the Cleveland game on Sunday. It's almost impossible for Pittsburgh to move off the AFC's No. 4 seed, assuming it wins the division.
Teams eliminated from the playoffs include: the Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Chiefs and Raiders. It's not that these clubs can't play well in Week 17, but they don't have the cleanest motivation. Consider that before you commit to a lineup.
Think Like a DFS Player
Keep in mind your head-to-head game and your starting lineup are constantly evolving entities, both before the games start and while the games are in action. If you find yourself shifting from clear favorite to obvious underdog after a few results filter in, it might make sense to embrace volatility in the later part of the slate.
Optimum decision-making is a dynamic process; like a card counter at the blackjack table, the variables are constantly in flux. Don't throw common sense out the window as your game progresses, but at least consider how the picture is changing, and if you need to take a different strategy as your winning odds are improving or decreasing.
A key hack that ties into this — realize what your flex spots are for. If you're going to play anyone in the early games, make sure they're occupying a static position (RB, WR, etc.) rather than a flex spot.
Also consider the flow of championship week this year. We have three games on Thursday, Christmas Day. We have two more games on Saturday. Then the week finishes with the usual cadences, a slate of games on Sunday and the Monday capper. There are several points in the week where you can reevaluate your projected outcome and decide if you need to change anything to reflect the new reality.
Consider All You Respect, but Make Your Own Decisions
You're the CEO, the general manager, the marketing director. You win, you get the spoils. I don't blame you for seeking out information and other opinions — I'm going to do the same thing — but at the end of the day, you want to be responsible for your choices. You know your league better than we ever could.
There are no shortcuts or golden tickets, even as we want to believe in those things sometimes. This would be a rather boring game if the answers were easy. No analyst is worth your blind devotion, nor is anyone so dense that they're worth an automatic fade (that would be just as valuable as the omniscient analyst, but neither exists). Consider the reasonable opinions you normally seek out, but condense everything down to your own sound decision-making process.
Don't Play For Friendliest Loss
This note isn't for everyone, because I understand that many managers want simple rules of thumb to follow as they struggle with theParadox of Choice. "Always Start Your Stars" has always struck me as a crutch, not an answer to anything — because the definition of a star is too fluid. Is Justin Jefferson still a fantasy star? Is Travis Kelce unplayable now that the Chiefs are down to their third-string quarterback? What about an injured star, or a player coming off a multi-game layoff? Do they fit this dated "start your stars" maxim?
Most coaches in professional sports still manage by the book (though that's starting to change), and often they flush expected value in the process. It's understandable that they're pushed in this direction — they need to keep their jobs, answer to the media and the public, keep favor in the locker room. Very few decision-makers are tenured in a way that they can do unorthodox things without significant risk.
But fantasy managers don't have that invisible hand guiding us. We don't have to please ownership, or win the media or placate the players. We just want our best chance of winning.
I am not going to pick my starting lineups by name-brand value, or by August ADP or by how I viewed my depth chart a month ago. I will try to make all of my key decisions with the sole objective of scoring the most points. I do not care which potential losing scenario would hurt the least (that's why it's so hard for some to bench a name player; it's human nature to try to cushion the blow before it even comes).
Never forget, it's a game about numbers, not a game about names.
This article could be a non-stop entity; eventually, we have to hit publish. A few other bite-sized thoughts:
— Weather is worth considering but as a low-end priority; heavy wind is generally the only thing to be proactive about.
— If you can get an indoor or warm-weather kicker, that's nice, though mostly I just want a kicker tied to a team expected to win.
— The skill of fantasy football is what you do over the long run, the balance of the season. See the playoffs for what they are: a tournament. We all get bitten by variance sometimes.
— Take as much time as possible before you commit to decisions. The walk-up days are for collecting information.
I'm sure I left out some tips that are prominent on your clipboard.Catch me on social media and share your thoughts.
