The Denver Broncos were no one's idea of a Super Bowl contender two years ago.
Stumbling to an 0-3 start in 2023, they allowed 70 points in a game, the third most ever scored in NFL history. There was so much trader's remorse about quarterback Russell Wilson — whom the team had acquired to great fanfare less than two years earlier — that they benched him and later agreed to eat $85 million of his contract.
By that season's end, the Broncos had missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive year.
In a sign of how quickly fortunes can flip in the parity-filled NFL, Denver (12-2) now boasts one of the league's best defenses, a quarterback it believes in and an 11-game winning streak. And after Sunday's 34-26 win against Green Bay, a team with its own credible aspirations of a deep playoff run, the Broncos have become the Super Bowl contenders no one saw coming even midway through last season.
"It's an exciting time to be a Bronco right now," second-year quarterback Bo Nix said Sunday after he threw for 302 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. "That was just another game in our journey of where we want to go."
Coach Sean Payton thought the Broncos could go all the way to the Super Bowl as far back as training camp,when he told Yahoo Sportsthat it was the seventh team of his career he believed could win a title.
Payton's belief stemmed in large part from Denver's defensive turnaround. Just one year after it allowed 70 points to Miami, Denver last season allowed the league's second-fewest yards per play and third-fewest points. Cornerback Patrick Surtain won honors as the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. They projected to again be among the league's best this year, too.
The question, however, was whether Nix was up to the task of joining Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the first two seasons of their careers.
Nix had impressed Payton in the lead-up to the NFL draft after five seasons as a starter in college, including setting an NCAA record for completion percentage in his last. In April 2024, one month after it offloaded Wilson, Denver drafted Nix 12th overall, and by the ensuing season's first game, he was already the starter.
Yet three weeks into his career, Nix had thrown for more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (zero). In his fourth game, he got his first touchdown and helped Denver to a win; however, he threw for a less-than-inspiring 60 yards.
Even after he finished his rookie season with 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions over his last eight games to help Denver make the postseason, it was no sure thing that Nix could elevate his team to be a legitimate contender in his second season as the Broncos started 1-2 start this fall.
Amid a season when no team has taken a step forward as a runaway title contender Denver, too, is no lock for a deep postseason run. It plays with fire, having trailed in each of its first 12 games. Yet no team has been better at winning close games, and Nix is a factor. His eight fourth-quarter comebacks are the most by any quarterback in his first two seasons since QB starts were first tracked in 1950, according to NBC Sports research.
The Broncos did not trail in the fourth quarter Sunday but fell behind 23-14 and answered with three straight touchdowns.
"He was having him a day out there, just dotting the ball around," receiver Courtland Sutton said.
Nix said Sunday: "I appreciate [Payton] for letting me be competitive, and he hasn't taken that fire away from me. Together we are just working really well off each other. He trusts me, and I can tell by the way he is calling it."
In their 11-game winning streak, Nix ranks 10th in expected points added per play, and his "success rate" ranks in the league'sbottom third. Though he is known for bold calls, Payton has often called plays for Nix that have been criticized as conservative.
Yet Nix has also been repeatedly tested in close games and helped Denver emerge victorious, and he has thrown just one interception in the past month.
"When you get comfortable operating in those games, then you don't think anything of it," Payton said.
Even more than Nix's development, what has underpinned Denver's two-year turnaround is its defense under coordinator Vance Joseph — the same coordinator, yes, who was in charge during its 2023 nadir.
That season, the 5.8 yards per play the Broncos allowed was third worst in the league. Last season, it dropped to 4.9, second best. This season, the Broncos are averaging 4.6. A little more than a third of opponents' drives have resulted in offensive scores, the league's seventh-best mark.
Denver has limited opponents' success by sacking them at a rate that could be historic. Their 58 sacks are 10 more than the next best team's. The NFL's single-season record of 72 sacks, set by the 1984 Chicago Bears, is in jeopardy.
Their defensive control was why it was so notable when Green Bay produced six big plays in Sunday's first three quarters. Then Surtain dived in front of receiver Christian Watson to intercept Packers quarterback Jordan Love. The turnover set up three straight touchdown drives by Denver to take the lead, and the game. With the win, Denver became the first AFC team to clinch a playoff spot with three games still to play in the regular season.
"Just had to find a way to make a play," Surtain said.
It was the kind of complementary performance between offense and defense that would have been inconceivable just two years ago, and it has Denver in the hunt for its first Super Bowl since 2015.
