It seemed like a reasonable enough proposition: Hire a coach with a lengthy, proven track record of winning, give him control of personnel decisions to reshape the team in his preferred image, and sit back and watch the wins roll in. Easy, right?
And then Pete Carroll went 3-14 in his first and only season leading theLas Vegas Raiders. It's worth remembering, in this era of rapid, quick-triggercoaching turnover, that a massive change in a franchise's direction doesn't automatically mean that direction will be positive.
Nine coaches were relieved of their duties and another resigned during or after the 2025 NFL season, a phenomenally large turnover. When one-third of your league willingly takes on the most fundamental reorganization short of selling the team, something's in the air. Something that smells a whole lot like impatience.
The success of theChicago BearsandNew England Patriotsthis season did more than turn the clock back to 1985 and the 2010s, respectively. Their quick turnarounds — a six-win improvement for Chicago, a 10-win improvement for New England — persuaded fans and itchy team owners alike that success for any team is just a head coach away. Throw in theJacksonville Jaguars— the freakingJaguars!— going from four wins to 13, and fans and owners have to be thinking that anyone can do this.
Here's the thing: the fans and club owners might not be wrong. We already knew that the distance between the playoffs and unemployment is one missed field goal, as John Harbaugh and the Week 18Baltimore Ravenscan attest. And the distance between playoff success and an early exit is one miraculous catch, as theLos Angeles Ramshave proven two straight weeks. Oh, and the difference between a castoff bust and a playoff-level quarterback is the uniform, asSam Darnoldhas demonstrated the past two years.
The right coach in the right situation can work miracles. Look at how Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson have transformed the Patriots and Bears into playoff-worthy (and, in New England's case, potentially Super Bowl-bound) teams in just a single offseason. Look how Liam Coen has at last unlockedTrevor Lawrencein Jacksonville. These coaches have reinvigorated their entire organizations, top to bottom, and the results both on and off the field have been obvious. (We could throw in newnational champion Indiana here too, from a believe-in-the-impossible standpoint, if not a roster-construction one.)
If you're theNew York Giantsor theAtlanta Falcons, mired in years of mediocrity, you look at that kind of makeover and you think,why not us?If you're thePittsburgh SteelersorBuffalo Billsor Ravens, stuck in wild-card hell for nearly a decade, you look at the Bears, Jags and Patriots busting through that ceiling in just one year, and you think,we need some of that.If you're theTennessee Titans,Cleveland BrownsorArizona Cardinals, tired of being a done-by-Halloween punch line, you look at how the Bears and Patriots have ridden high draft picks to success and you think,wait a minute, we've got high draft picks too!
And that's how you end up with 10 head coaches updating their LinkedIn pages.
We know, based on history, that roughly half of the teams in this year's playoff field won't be there next season. We can make some guesses as to who might replace them — Harbaugh might give the Giants the boost they need, Kevin Stefanski might get Atlanta to win more of the games it should win — but the only certainty in the playoff field is uncertainty.
It's worth remembering, then, that as teams surge upward, other teams must give way. And you don't need to look very far to see how two recent renaissances flamed out in a hurry. Dan Campbell tookDetroitfrom three wins to the No. 1 seed in the NFC in just three years … and missed the playoffs this year. Dan Quinn took over a four-winWashington Commandersteam and promptly led them to the NFC championship in 2023 … and then right back down to five wins this year. Kevin O'Connell has posted records of 13, 7, 14 and 9 wins over four seasons inMinnesota, pinballing in and out of the playoffs.
Every NFL head coach knows this is a cruel and tenuous business, but the trend seems to be only accelerating. The only AP Coach of the Year winners since 2017 still with their team are Sean McVay and O'Connell. Three of the last four -– Vrabel, Brian Daboll and Stefanskitwice!— were fired within two years of winning the award, and O'Connell, last year's winner, might not have much latitude left either.
So, best of luck to the new and soon-to-be-new coaching hires. Your honeymoon will last only until your first loss. As you survey your new hometown … may we suggest renting rather than buying?
